Well, here we are again... To absolutely nobody's surprise, North Korea conducted another nuclear test. Now described as the "biggest ever" by observers; the western world awoke to discover the usual faux outrage, condemnation and heated aftermath following the hermit kingdom's provocative behaviour. Despite being under four rounds of United Nations sanctions, endless negotiations and increasing international pressure, North Korea used the test to trumpet a message to the world that they are not backing down and they will not give up on the path they have took, they will become a nuclear armed state and the world must grow to accept them. In their usual fiery tone, they described disarmament as a "fatal misjudgment" and a "silly dream" through the official state news agency.
Although it is low hanging fruit to describe North Korea as a irrational, illogical and evil monolith, there is a very well calculated logic behind the decisions the state makes, independent of the moral standing of their actions. In order to understand the increasingly volatile situation on the Korean peninsula, the behaviour and the thinking that underpins it must be understood. It is easy to condemn North Korea, but let's be clear that it achieves absolutely nothing. A decade of condemnation, protest, isolation, sanctions and moralization has not deterred Pyongyang from pushing towards this goal and given at the evidence, succeeding. North Korea is not just "trying" to build nuclear weapons, it has done so and, because the world refuses to grasp the country's fundamental lack of security and lack of recognition, it will continue, with disastrous consequences for the stability of the Asia-pacific region. It is a state that is driven by robust insecurity, a fear of its own demise to a superior South and an unwillingness to cave in to an international order which it believe will dominate it, buoyed by the memory of Japanese rule and war with the United States.
North Korea's deeply embedded insecurity derives from a combination of its origin as a post-colonial state under Japanese rule, the division of Korea by foreign powers, a long lost competition with a more superior rival in the South over the same national identity and the unfinished dilemma of the Korean War, where, due to the intervention of the United States the regime failed to capture the South and was almost destroyed in the process. All of these matters have been left unresolved, the Japanese have never reconciled their colonial legacy in the North like they did with the South and the Korean war never formally ended with a peace treaty, leaving the country in a continuous state of conflict with the United States and the South. History has only entrenched North Korea's anxieties and weak position, with South Korea evolving into one of world's leading economies in the 70s and 80s whilst the North fell into economic ruin, backwardness and famine as the Soviet Sphere collapsed and once "lips and teeth" ally China reformed and moved on. Not only that, but the world is now led by the superpower which has a track record of invading, bullying and deposing regimes which it does not like. For North Korea, the threat of invasion by America has been a real prospect. These fears are not unjustified and they add onto the existing background of all discussed so far.
Therefore, North Korea has feared for its existence from the beginning and as elaborated, this insecurity has only grown over time due. North Korea's position in the world has manifested itself into an ideological thought obsessed with national survival, non-conformity, sovereignty and national independence; known by themselves as "Juche". The Juche ideology is not just propaganda fed to the North Korean people, but a Machiavellian strategy designed by the leadership which involves defending the identity, prestige and integrity of the regime against the "pollution" of the outside world, also influenced considerably by ancient Korean and Manchurian xenophobia. Juche outlines North Korea ought to resist and struggle against a hostile world than conform to it, seeking to manipulate the situation to its own advantage and terms, showing resolve and fight against pressure placed upon it. Hence its fierce reply to the latest condemnation with [we will] “break the chains of sanctions, pressure, and blockade”.
North Korea wants recognition in the world, it longs for the acknowledgement as an equal and sovereign state, but problematically on its own terms and nobody else's. Although its political decisions are blatantly self-contradicting in the sense that they make their own people suffer and have prevented the country from moving forwards, it is entrenched in the North Korean leadership's mind that compromise and surrender can only bring about the regime's demise and subjection to "Imperialist ideologies"- the utopian dream of the regime is for an independent and self-reliant DPRK, its leadership recognized and praised by the rest of the world, flourishing in its own identity and getting what it wants on its own terms only (including Korean reunification).
Therefore, as a nation fearful of its own political survival, faced with a hostile world and the threat of external intervention, a backwards economic situation and also a young, insecure and inexperienced leader who lacks the legitimacy of his predecessors, North Korea has turned to nuclear proliferation more drastically than ever before as a means of defence and domestic prestige and, in a show of strength, is prepared to endure the costs placed upon it and simply insist the international community accept them. Although the risk of a coup or overthrow is unlikely, Kim Jong Un's personal position is not invincible. He has faced many challenges from senior officials and China style reformists in his government and resorted to brutal tactics to deter them- he presides over a North Korea increasingly penetrated by the outside world, with even some elites choosing to defect. In his mind, the initiation of North Korea as a nuclear armed state kills two birds with one stone, it is a scientific and technological achievement the country can cling to, a propaganda element to draw pride towards, a powerful diplomatic tool, forcing nations to take them seriously, whilst it is also the ultimate safeguard against foreign invasion- as Lankov likes to highlight, having witnessed the United States force regime change on Iraq, on Libya (Gaddafi having gave up weapons for sanctions relief and got overthrown anyway) and attempt to in Syria by Proxy, why would they choose any other path? Especially when there are 20,000 U.S troops stationed near your border and host annual military exercises next to you...
On this matter, it should be obvious to everyone now North Korea are not going to back down. Kim Jong Un has truly pinned his flag to the nuclear mast. He has pledged openly nuclear development and even gone as revising the constitution to describe the country as a nuclear power. To back down or grant concessions would represent a horrible loss of face for him, a break with ideological orthodoxy and a broken political promise and loss of legitimacy- (Yes, even in North Korea there is a political price for promises you don't keep). Of course, North Korea's belief that they can continue to "resist", push and blackmail their way to the world accepting them as a nuclear power is also a total fantasy, a dangerous one, at that. As much as a nuclear arsenal will make an aggressor think twice about attacking North Korea, ironically the flipside of the coin is that with increasing nuclear armament, the security situation in East Asia becomes increasingly volatile and increasingly unstable. For example, we're use to hearing North Korea threatening to attack the South or the U.S, but when the South Korean government release a statement, as they did today, threatening to "wipe Pyongyang off the map" (source), you know the situation is worrisome. For as much as a nuclear program is North Korea's security, the famous security dilemma rules that it also becomes another another state's insecurity. The result is greater South Korean militarization, greater American militarization and greater Japanese militarization- a vicious circle ensures. As these neighboring countries arm more, North Korea's chances of disarming become even less and the cycle continues. As this happens, China becomes anxious by the military buildup in countries around it and intensifies its anti-Japanese and anti-American line, which causes the former two to retaliate with the same. The result is that North Korean proliferation destabilizes everything...
So how do the international community deal with this? It's clear now that sanctions don't work and that the newest test sent an explicit message that they really don't care, yet this is hardly a new thing at all so why is it still being tried? With a minuscule economy, minimal economic interactions with the wider world, numerous illicit means of obtaining foreign currency and a China unwilling to act hard on them, North Korea have nothing to lose. As sanctions are interpreted as a violation of their sovereignty and an attempt at foreign subjection, North Korea will not respond to them- they are not going to accept the United States's self-perceived role as a parent that believes it can discipline or punish nations into behaving the way it likes, it's just not going to happen. It creates a huge dilemma for foreign policy makers as the DPRK's determination drifts over all methods of stopping them, hard or soft. It seems there is pretty much nothing left that can be tried. The situation has got to the extent where hope of a solution is drifting further and further away and one dangerous escalation or miscalculation could unleash a tragedy, or worse, nuclear conflict. Someone has going to have to concede, back down and accept the others terms, it probably won't be North Korea... it may be time to do a deal with the devil.
North Korea's deeply embedded insecurity derives from a combination of its origin as a post-colonial state under Japanese rule, the division of Korea by foreign powers, a long lost competition with a more superior rival in the South over the same national identity and the unfinished dilemma of the Korean War, where, due to the intervention of the United States the regime failed to capture the South and was almost destroyed in the process. All of these matters have been left unresolved, the Japanese have never reconciled their colonial legacy in the North like they did with the South and the Korean war never formally ended with a peace treaty, leaving the country in a continuous state of conflict with the United States and the South. History has only entrenched North Korea's anxieties and weak position, with South Korea evolving into one of world's leading economies in the 70s and 80s whilst the North fell into economic ruin, backwardness and famine as the Soviet Sphere collapsed and once "lips and teeth" ally China reformed and moved on. Not only that, but the world is now led by the superpower which has a track record of invading, bullying and deposing regimes which it does not like. For North Korea, the threat of invasion by America has been a real prospect. These fears are not unjustified and they add onto the existing background of all discussed so far.
Therefore, North Korea has feared for its existence from the beginning and as elaborated, this insecurity has only grown over time due. North Korea's position in the world has manifested itself into an ideological thought obsessed with national survival, non-conformity, sovereignty and national independence; known by themselves as "Juche". The Juche ideology is not just propaganda fed to the North Korean people, but a Machiavellian strategy designed by the leadership which involves defending the identity, prestige and integrity of the regime against the "pollution" of the outside world, also influenced considerably by ancient Korean and Manchurian xenophobia. Juche outlines North Korea ought to resist and struggle against a hostile world than conform to it, seeking to manipulate the situation to its own advantage and terms, showing resolve and fight against pressure placed upon it. Hence its fierce reply to the latest condemnation with [we will] “break the chains of sanctions, pressure, and blockade”.
North Korea wants recognition in the world, it longs for the acknowledgement as an equal and sovereign state, but problematically on its own terms and nobody else's. Although its political decisions are blatantly self-contradicting in the sense that they make their own people suffer and have prevented the country from moving forwards, it is entrenched in the North Korean leadership's mind that compromise and surrender can only bring about the regime's demise and subjection to "Imperialist ideologies"- the utopian dream of the regime is for an independent and self-reliant DPRK, its leadership recognized and praised by the rest of the world, flourishing in its own identity and getting what it wants on its own terms only (including Korean reunification).
North Korean propaganda expresses the regime's endless resolve and determination to pursue its goals, despite the suffering it may bring to its people
Therefore, as a nation fearful of its own political survival, faced with a hostile world and the threat of external intervention, a backwards economic situation and also a young, insecure and inexperienced leader who lacks the legitimacy of his predecessors, North Korea has turned to nuclear proliferation more drastically than ever before as a means of defence and domestic prestige and, in a show of strength, is prepared to endure the costs placed upon it and simply insist the international community accept them. Although the risk of a coup or overthrow is unlikely, Kim Jong Un's personal position is not invincible. He has faced many challenges from senior officials and China style reformists in his government and resorted to brutal tactics to deter them- he presides over a North Korea increasingly penetrated by the outside world, with even some elites choosing to defect. In his mind, the initiation of North Korea as a nuclear armed state kills two birds with one stone, it is a scientific and technological achievement the country can cling to, a propaganda element to draw pride towards, a powerful diplomatic tool, forcing nations to take them seriously, whilst it is also the ultimate safeguard against foreign invasion- as Lankov likes to highlight, having witnessed the United States force regime change on Iraq, on Libya (Gaddafi having gave up weapons for sanctions relief and got overthrown anyway) and attempt to in Syria by Proxy, why would they choose any other path? Especially when there are 20,000 U.S troops stationed near your border and host annual military exercises next to you...
On this matter, it should be obvious to everyone now North Korea are not going to back down. Kim Jong Un has truly pinned his flag to the nuclear mast. He has pledged openly nuclear development and even gone as revising the constitution to describe the country as a nuclear power. To back down or grant concessions would represent a horrible loss of face for him, a break with ideological orthodoxy and a broken political promise and loss of legitimacy- (Yes, even in North Korea there is a political price for promises you don't keep). Of course, North Korea's belief that they can continue to "resist", push and blackmail their way to the world accepting them as a nuclear power is also a total fantasy, a dangerous one, at that. As much as a nuclear arsenal will make an aggressor think twice about attacking North Korea, ironically the flipside of the coin is that with increasing nuclear armament, the security situation in East Asia becomes increasingly volatile and increasingly unstable. For example, we're use to hearing North Korea threatening to attack the South or the U.S, but when the South Korean government release a statement, as they did today, threatening to "wipe Pyongyang off the map" (source), you know the situation is worrisome. For as much as a nuclear program is North Korea's security, the famous security dilemma rules that it also becomes another another state's insecurity. The result is greater South Korean militarization, greater American militarization and greater Japanese militarization- a vicious circle ensures. As these neighboring countries arm more, North Korea's chances of disarming become even less and the cycle continues. As this happens, China becomes anxious by the military buildup in countries around it and intensifies its anti-Japanese and anti-American line, which causes the former two to retaliate with the same. The result is that North Korean proliferation destabilizes everything...
So how do the international community deal with this? It's clear now that sanctions don't work and that the newest test sent an explicit message that they really don't care, yet this is hardly a new thing at all so why is it still being tried? With a minuscule economy, minimal economic interactions with the wider world, numerous illicit means of obtaining foreign currency and a China unwilling to act hard on them, North Korea have nothing to lose. As sanctions are interpreted as a violation of their sovereignty and an attempt at foreign subjection, North Korea will not respond to them- they are not going to accept the United States's self-perceived role as a parent that believes it can discipline or punish nations into behaving the way it likes, it's just not going to happen. It creates a huge dilemma for foreign policy makers as the DPRK's determination drifts over all methods of stopping them, hard or soft. It seems there is pretty much nothing left that can be tried. The situation has got to the extent where hope of a solution is drifting further and further away and one dangerous escalation or miscalculation could unleash a tragedy, or worse, nuclear conflict. Someone has going to have to concede, back down and accept the others terms, it probably won't be North Korea... it may be time to do a deal with the devil.
